Adjusted Mutual Information, are type II biased.

The rapid adoption of large language models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 and Claude 3.5, underscores the need to distinguish LLM-generated text from human-written content to mitigate the spread of misinformation and misuse in education. One promising approach to address this issue is the watermark technique, which embeds subtle statistical signals into LLM-generated text to enable reliable identification. In this paper, we first generalize the likelihood-based LLM detection method of a previous study by introducing a flexible weighted formulation, and further adapt this approach to the inverse transform sampling method. Moving beyond watermark detection, we extend this adaptive detection strategy to tackle the more challenging problem of segmenting a given text into watermarked and non-watermarked substrings. In contrast to the approach in a previous study, which relies on accurate estimation of next-token probabilities that are highly sensitive to prompt estimation, our proposed framework removes the need for precise prompt estimation. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed methodology is both effective and robust in accurately segmenting texts containing a mixture of watermarked and non-watermarked content.

Comparing clusterings is central to evaluating unsupervised models, yet the many existing similarity measures can produce widely divergent, sometimes contradictory, evaluations. Clustering similarity measures are typically organized into two principal families, pair-counting and information-theoretic, reflecting whether they quantify agreement through element pairs or aggregate information across full cluster contingency tables. Prior work has uncovered parallels between these families and applied empirical normalization or chance-correction schemes, but their deeper analytical connection remains only partially understood. Here, we develop an analytical framework that unifies these families through two complementary perspectives. First, both families are expressed as weighted expansions of observed versus expected co-occurrences, with pair-counting arising as a quadratic, low-order approximation and information-theoretic measures as higher-order, frequency-weighted extensions. Second, we generalize pair-counting to $k$-tuple agreement and show that information-theoretic measures can be viewed as systematically accumulating higher-order co-assignment structure beyond the pairwise level. We illustrate the approaches analytically for the Rand index and Mutual Information, and show how other indices in each family emerge as natural extensions. Together, these views clarify when and why the two regimes diverge, relating their sensitivities directly to weighting and approximation order, and provide a principled basis for selecting, interpreting, and extending clustering similarity measures across applications.

Adjusted Mutual Information, are type II biased.

With the increasing popularity of large language models, concerns over content authenticity have led to the development of myriad watermarking schemes. These schemes can be used to detect a machine-generated text via an appropriate key, while being imperceptible to readers with no such keys. The corresponding detection mechanisms usually take the form of statistical hypothesis testing for the existence of watermarks, spurring extensive research in this direction. However, the finer-grained problem of identifying which segments of a mixed-source text are actually watermarked, is much less explored; the existing approaches either lack scalability or theoretical guarantees robust to paraphrase and post-editing. In this work, we introduce a unique perspective to such watermark segmentation problems through the lens of epidemic change-points. By highlighting the similarities as well as differences of these two problems, we motivate and propose WISER: a novel, computationally efficient, watermark segmentation algorithm. We theoretically validate our algorithm by deriving finite sample error-bounds, and establishing its consistency in detecting multiple watermarked segments in a single text. Complementing these theoretical results, our extensive numerical experiments show that WISER outperforms state-of-the-art baseline methods, both in terms of computational speed as well as accuracy, on various benchmark datasets embedded with diverse watermarking schemes. Our theoretical and empirical findings establish WISER as an effective tool for watermark localization in most settings. It also shows how insights from a classical statistical problem can lead to a theoretically valid and computationally efficient solution of a modern and pertinent problem.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is critical in domains such as personalized medicine, resource allocation, and policy evaluation. A central challenge lies in identifying subpopulations that respond differently to interventions, thereby enabling more targeted and effective decision-making. While clustering methods are well-studied in unsupervised learning, their integration with causal inference remains limited. We propose a novel framework that clusters individuals based on estimated treatment effects using a learned kernel derived from causal forests, revealing latent subgroup structures. Our approach consists of two main steps. First, we estimate debiased Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) using orthogonalized learners via the Robinson decomposition, yielding a kernel matrix that encodes sample-level similarities in treatment responsiveness. Second, we apply kernelized clustering to this matrix to uncover distinct, treatment-sensitive subpopulations and compute cluster-level average CATEs. We present this kernelized clustering step as a form of regularization within the residual-on-residual regression framework. Through extensive experiments on semi-synthetic and real-world datasets, supported by ablation studies and exploratory analyses, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in capturing meaningful treatment effect heterogeneity.

Within a legal framework, fairness in datasets and models is typically assessed by dividing observations into predefined groups and then computing fairness measures (e.g., Disparate Impact or Equality of Odds with respect to gender). However, when sensitive attributes such as skin color are continuous, dividing into default groups may overlook or obscure the discrimination experienced by certain minority subpopulations. To address this limitation, we propose a fairness-based grouping approach for continuous (possibly multidimensional) sensitive attributes. By grouping data according to observed levels of discrimination, our method identifies the partition that maximizes a novel criterion based on inter-group variance in discrimination, thereby isolating the most critical subgroups. We validate the proposed approach using multiple synthetic datasets and demonstrate its robustness under changing population distributions - revealing how discrimination is manifested within the space of sensitive attributes. Furthermore, we examine a specialized setting of monotonic fairness for the case of skin color. Our empirical results on both CelebA and FFHQ, leveraging the skin tone as predicted by an industrial proprietary algorithm, show that the proposed segmentation uncovers more nuanced patterns of discrimination than previously reported, and that these findings remain stable across datasets for a given model. Finally, we leverage our grouping model for debiasing purpose, aiming at predicting fair scores with group-by-group post-processing. The results demonstrate that our approach improves fairness while having minimal impact on accuracy, thus confirming our partition method and opening the door for industrial deployment.

Ocean microbes are critical to both ocean ecosystems and the global climate. Flow cytometry, which measures cell optical properties in fluid samples, is routinely used in oceanographic research. Despite decades of accumulated data, identifying key microbial populations (a process known as ``gating'') remains a significant analytical challenge. To address this, we focus on gating multidimensional, high-frequency flow cytometry data collected {\it continuously} on board oceanographic research vessels, capturing time- and space-wise variations in the dynamic ocean. Our paper proposes a novel mixture-of-experts model in which both the gating function and the experts are given by trend filtering. The model leverages two key assumptions: (1) Each snapshot of flow cytometry data is a mixture of multivariate Gaussians and (2) the parameters of these Gaussians vary smoothly over time. Our method uses regularization and a constraint to ensure smoothness and that cluster means match biologically distinct microbe types. We demonstrate, using flow cytometry data from the North Pacific Ocean, that our proposed model accurately matches human-annotated gating and corrects significant errors.

An often overlooked problem in medical image segmentation research is the effective selection of training subsets to annotate from a complete set of unlabelled data. Many studies select their training sets at random, which may lead to suboptimal model performance, especially in the minimal supervision setting where each training image has a profound effect on performance outcomes. This work aims to address this issue. We use prototypical contrasting learning and clustering to extract representative and diverse samples for annotation. We improve upon prior works with a bespoke cluster-based image selection process. Additionally, we introduce the concept of unsupervised balanced batch dataloading to medical image segmentation, which aims to improve model learning with minimally annotated data. We evaluated our method on a public skin lesion dataset (ISIC 2018) and compared it to another state-of-the-art data sampling method. Our method achieved superior performance in a low annotation budget scenario.

Neural networks are widely used in machine learning and data mining. Typically, these networks need to be trained, implying the adjustment of weights (parameters) within the network based on the input data. In this work, we propose a novel approach, RandomNet, that employs untrained deep neural networks to cluster time series. RandomNet uses different sets of random weights to extract diverse representations of time series and then ensembles the clustering relationships derived from these different representations to build the final clustering results. By extracting diverse representations, our model can effectively handle time series with different characteristics. Since all parameters are randomly generated, no training is required during the process. We provide a theoretical analysis of the effectiveness of the method. To validate its performance, we conduct extensive experiments on all of the 128 datasets in the well-known UCR time series archive and perform statistical analysis of the results. These datasets have different sizes, sequence lengths, and they are from diverse fields. The experimental results show that the proposed method is competitive compared with existing state-of-the-art methods.